A second update to August Oscar predictions

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Two in one month? I know, that’s not something we normally do while still in the summer. And yet, here we are, looking at updated Academy Award predictions. The Oscars may seem off in the distance, but there’s only four full months of new releases left in the year. In a few days I’ll run down the best of the first two thirds of 2017, but it’s the final, still to be seen, third that will make or break the year. That’s what I’m still speculating on here. This is truly the final moments of calm before the awards season storm begins. Before you know it, precursors will be chiming in and the race will be taking shape.

Next month will see huge turnover with the fall film festival season creating new contenders, turning previous ones into pretenders, and upending the race overall. As such, this is a good snapshot of where we are. Right now, the safe money still has Dunkirk doing extremely well, though there’s plenty of room for something else to crash the party. That may even be the likely scenario, though it won’t be for a little while yet. If you want a little engine that could type scenario, watch out for The Florida Project. I saw it earlier this week and it’s phenomenal. For the moment, just take a gander at the predictions and get set for the festival season to kick into gear…

Here now are my very latest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Downsizing
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Molly’s Game
6. Darkest Hour
7. Phantom Thread
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. Last Flag Flying
10. Detroit

Next in line: 11. Suburbicon 12. The Big Sick 13. The Greatest Showman 14. Battle of the Sexes 15. The Disaster Artist 16. Wonderstruck 17. Mudbound 18. Blade Runner 2049 19. Roman Israel, Esq 20. mother! 21. Goodbye Christopher Robin 22. Wind River 23. The Florida Project 24. Stronger 25. All the Money in the World 26. Lady Bird 27. The 15:17 to Paris 28. Chappaquiddick 29. Wonder Woman 30. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Alexander Payne – Downsizing
3. Steven Spielberg – The Papers
4. Woody Allen – Wonder Wheel
5. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 7. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour 8. Kathryn Bigelow – Detroit 9. George Clooney – Suburbicon 10. Darren Aronofsky – mother! 11. Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game 12. Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying 13. Todd Haynes – Wonderstruck 14. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris – Battle of the Sexes 15. Michael Gracey – The Greatest Showman

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
4. Tom Hanks – The Papers
5. Sam Elliott – The Hero

Next in line: 6. Matt Damon – Downsizing (or Suburbicon) 7. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 8. Denzel Washington – Roman Israel, Esq 9. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Could go Supporting) 10. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here 11. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 12. Liam Neeson – Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House 13. Domhnall Gleeson – Goodbye Christopher Robin 14. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name 15. Jason Clarke – Chappaquiddick

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel
3. Meryl Streep – The Papers
4. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 7. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 8. Anette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 9. Carey Mulligan – Mudbound 10. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird 11. Kristen Wiig – Downsizing 12. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman 13. Cynthia Nixon – A Quiet Passion 14. Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman 15. Margaret Qualley – Novitiate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes (or Last Flag Flying)
2. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Oscar Isaac – Suburbicon
5. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk 7. Will Poulter – Detroit 8. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game 9. Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle 10. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 11. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 12. Ray Romano – The Big Sick 13. Ed Harris – mother! 14. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (or All The Money In The World or Wonderstruck)
2. Hong Chau – Downsizing
3. Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!
4. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
5. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime

Next in line: 6. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 7. Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (or Wonderstruck) 8. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 9. Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin 10. Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled (or The Killing of a Sacred Deer) 11. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 12. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 13. Kate Mara – Chappaquiddick 14. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 15. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Big Sick
2. Downsizing
3. The Papers
4. Wonder Wheel
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Dunkirk 7. mother! 8. Suburbicon 9. Phantom Thread 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 12. Darkest Hour 13. Roman Israel, Esq 14. Wind River 15. Lady Bird

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Molly’s Game
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Last Flag Flying
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Mudbound

Next in line: 6. Battle of the Sexes 7. Wonderstuck 8. The Beguiled 9. Stronger 10. The 15:17 to Paris 11. Thank You For Your Service 12. Victoria and Abdul 13. You Were Never Really Here 14. Lean on Pete 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Next in line: 6. Despicable Me 3 7. Blazing Samurai 8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 9. Leap! 10. The Boss Baby 11. The Breadwinner 12. The Emoji Movie 13. My Little Pony: The Movie 14. The Star 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. The Beguiled 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. Downsizing 10. Darkest Hour 11. The Current War 12. Mudbound 13. The Beguiled 14. Wonder Wheel 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Wonderstruck
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. Detroit 7. Downsizing 8. mother! 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Wonder Wheel 11. Darkest Hour 12. The Papers 13. Last Flag Flying 14. Call Me By Your Name 15. The Beguiled

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Greatest Showman
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Wonder Wheel

Next in line: 6. Dunkirk 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Mudbound 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Blade Runner 2049 12. The Lost City of Z 13. Wonder Woman 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. The Papers

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Downsizing
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2049 7. mother! 8. Darkest Hour 9. Phantom Thread 10. Last Flag Flying 11. Baby Driver 12. Wonderstruck 13. Molly’s Game 14. The Greatest Showman 15. Suburbicon

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 4. Darkest Hour 5. The Lost City of Z 6. Logan 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. Wonder Woman 10. Blade Runner 2049 11. Mother! 12. Downsizing 13. Wonder Wheel 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. The Shape of Water

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Baby Driver

Next in line: 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Wonder Woman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Wonder Woman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Downsizing
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Dunkirk 7. Wonder Woman 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant 11. Murder on the Orient Express 12. Okja 13. Spider-Man: Homecoming 14. Logan 15. Transformers: The Last Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Wonderstruck
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. mother!
5. The Papers

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2049 7. Phantom Thread 8. Downsizing 9. Darkest Hour 10. The Greatest Showman 11. The Shape of Water 12. Baby Driver 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 14. The Silent Man 15. Justice League

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. The Hero
3. Coco
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Chasing Coral 8. Fifty Shades Darker 9. Beauty and the Beast 10. Call Me By Your Name 11. The LEGO Batman Movie 12. A Ghost Story 13. ? 14. ? 15. ?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Risk
2. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
3. Chasing Coral
4. Icarus
5. Cries from Syria

6. Nobody Speak: Trials of the Free Press 7. Last Men in Aleppo 8. City of Ghosts 9. Super Size Me 2: Holy Chicken! 10. I Called Him Morgan 11. ? 12. ? 13. ? 14. ? 15. ?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. BPM: Beats Per Minute
2. Loveless
3. The Square
4. Happy Ending
5. The Divine Order

6. A Fantastic Woman 7. In the Cut 8. The Other Side of Hope 9. On Body and Soul 10. Nobody’s Watching 11. Paradise 12. ? 13. ? 14. ? 15. ?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Olaf’s Frozen Adventure
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?

Stay tuned for another update next month!

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